Live's future record royalties auctioned last year (2019) Options

[dangum]

Excel spreadsheet raw data (287,000 rows!) can be downloaded from here:
https://www.mediafire.com/file/kry6ejo2ces1..._CGPD.xlsx/file


Auction #1 financials
https://auctions.royaltyexchange.com/auctio...rock-band-live/








Auction #2 financials
https://auctions.royaltyexchange.com/auctio...nd-live-2-of-3/







Auction #3 financials
https://auctions.royaltyexchange.com/auctio...and-live-3-of-3

[dangum]

Bidding history data.

Auction #1
https://auctions.royaltyexchange.com/auctio...rock-band-live/

1. Alex G $114,000 on Mar 15, 2019, 10:58 AM MDT
2. S G $116,000 on Mar 15, 2019, 11:31 AM MDT
3. Ju J $118,000 on Mar 15, 2019, 8:04 PM MDT
4. Andrew W $126,000 on Mar 16, 2019, 3:59 PM MDT
5. Stephen T $128,000 on Mar 17, 2019, 4:38 AM MDT
6. Andrew W $130,000 on Mar 17, 2019, 4:38 AM MDT [auto]
7. Stephen T $132,000 on Mar 18, 2019, 3:43 AM MDT
8. Andrew W $134,000 on Mar 18, 2019, 3:43 AM MDT [auto]
9. Stephen T $152,000 on Mar 18, 2019, 3:20 PM MDT
10. Marc B $156,000 on Mar 18, 2019, 3:22 PM MDT
11. Stephen T $158,000 on Mar 18, 2019, 3:22 PM MDT [auto]
12. Marc B $162,000 on Mar 18, 2019, 4:05 PM MDT
13. Stephen T $164,000 on Mar 18, 2019, 4:05 PM MDT [auto]
14. Matthew L $166,000 on Mar 20, 2019, 11:46 AM MDT
15. Brendon C $168,000 on Mar 20, 2019, 12:52 PM MDT
16. Andrew C $170,000 on Mar 20, 2019, 12:57 PM MDT
17. Brendon C $172,000 on Mar 20, 2019, 12:58 PM MDT
18. Andrew C $172,000 on Mar 20, 2019, 12:58 PM MDT [auto]
19. Matthew L $174,000 on Mar 20, 2019, 12:58 PM MDT
20. Brendon C $180,000 on Mar 20, 2019, 12:58 PM MDT
21. Matthew L $182,000 on Mar 20, 2019, 12:58 PM MDT [auto]
22. Brendon C $184,000 on Mar 20, 2019, 12:58 PM MDT
23. Andrew C $186,000 on Mar 20, 2019, 1:03 PM MDT
24. Brendon C $188,000 on Mar 20, 2019, 1:03 PM MDT [auto]

Auction #2
https://auctions.royaltyexchange.com/auctio...and-live-2-of-3

1. Jason H $114,000 on Mar 20, 2019, 1:52 PM MDT
2. Andrew W $116,000 on Mar 20, 2019, 3:05 PM MDT
3. Troy E $118,000 on Mar 20, 2019, 3:43 PM MDT
4. Andrew W $120,000 on Mar 20, 2019, 3:43 PM MDT [auto]
5. Troy E $122,000 on Mar 20, 2019, 3:43 PM MDT
6. Andrew W $124,000 on Mar 20, 2019, 3:43 PM MDT [auto]
7. Troy E $126,000 on Mar 20, 2019, 3:43 PM MDT
8. Andrew W $128,000 on Mar 20, 2019, 3:43 PM MDT [auto]
9. Troy E $130,000 on Mar 20, 2019, 3:44 PM MDT
10. Andrew W $132,000 on Mar 20, 2019, 3:44 PM MDT [auto]
11. Troy E $134,000 on Mar 20, 2019, 3:45 PM MDT
12. Andrew W $136,000 on Mar 20, 2019, 3:45 PM MDT [auto]
13. Troy E $138,000 on Mar 20, 2019, 3:45 PM MDT
14. Andrew W $140,000 on Mar 20, 2019, 3:45 PM MDT [auto]
15. Troy E $142,000 on Mar 20, 2019, 3:45 PM MDT
16. Andrew W $144,000 on Mar 20, 2019, 3:45 PM MDT [auto]
17. Floyd D $146,000 on Mar 26, 2019, 10:24 AM MDT
18. Andrew W $148,000 on Mar 26, 2019, 10:24 AM MDT [auto]
19. Floyd D $150,000 on Mar 26, 2019, 10:24 AM MDT
20. Andrew W $152,000 on Mar 26, 2019, 10:24 AM MDT [auto]
21. Caterina Z $154,000 on Mar 26, 2019, 12:40 PM MDT
22. Andrew W $156,000 on Mar 26, 2019, 12:40 PM MDT [auto]
23. Jason H $158,000 on Mar 26, 2019, 12:51 PM MDT
24. Greg C $160,000 on Mar 26, 2019, 2:57 PM MDT
25. Jason H $162,000 on Mar 26, 2019, 3:00 PM MDT
26. Greg C $162,000 on Mar 26, 2019, 3:00 PM MDT [auto]
27. Jason H $164,000 on Mar 26, 2019, 3:01 PM MDT
28. thomas v $166,000 on Mar 26, 2019, 3:04 PM MDT
29. Jason H $168,000 on Mar 26, 2019, 3:06 PM MDT
30. David D $170,000 on Mar 26, 2019, 3:11 PM MDT
31. thomas v $172,000 on Mar 26, 2019, 3:11 PM MDT

Auction #3
https://auctions.royaltyexchange.com/auctio...and-live-3-of-3

1. Andrew W $226,000 on Mar 20, 2019, 3:11 PM MDT
2. Bulldog C $271,000 on Mar 20, 2019, 6:34 PM MDT
3. Andrew W $275,500 on Mar 20, 2019, 6:34 PM MDT [auto]
4. Bulldog C $298,000 on Mar 20, 2019, 6:42 PM MDT
5. Andrew W $302,500 on Mar 20, 2019, 6:42 PM MDT [auto]
6. Bulldog C $320,500 on Mar 26, 2019, 10:21 AM MDT
7. Matthew L $347,500 on Mar 27, 2019, 9:52 AM MDT
8. Bulldog C $352,000 on Mar 27, 2019, 9:52 AM MDT [auto]

[dangum]

If I'm reading the spreadsheet correctly, it looks like Kevin Smith paid $20,000 to use Hold Me Up in Zak and Miri Make a Porno.

[san_sao]

probably includes all their albums with Radioactive

I wonder if this eliminates the possibility of future re-issues of material. -____-

[Ecstatic Fanatic]

Bidding history data.

Auction #1
https://auctions.royaltyexchange.com/auctio...rock-band-live/
Auction #2
https://auctions.royaltyexchange.com/auctio...and-live-2-of-3
Auction #3
https://auctions.royaltyexchange.com/auctio...and-live-3-of-3

Thanks for posting all of this. Does it say how they calculate their “theoretical IRR”? For some reason that is also available to members only. The finance guy in me is interested in that.

I wonder if this eliminates the possibility of future re-issues of material. -____-

In theory whoever owns these would want reissues big time since it’d drive up airplay and royalties. My bet is that these are being auctioned now as the recent tours and Hold Me Up release are probably why Lives catalogue saw an increase in royalties generated last year. Makes this a good time to cash in when Live looks strong. But whoever has true copyright ownership is probably the person who calls the shots.

Next time these come up we should have a forum fundraiser and see if we can get a share. I’ll chip in $10.

[Bremang]

Thanks for posting all of this. Does it say how they calculate their "theoretical IRR"? For some reason that is also available to members only. The finance guy in me is interested in that.



In theory whoever owns these would want reissues big time since it'd drive up airplay and royalties. My bet is that these are being auctioned now as the recent tours and Hold Me Up release are probably why Lives catalogue saw an increase in royalties generated last year. Makes this a good time to cash in when Live looks strong. But whoever has true copyright ownership is probably the person who calls the shots.

Next time these come up we should have a forum fundraiser and see if we can get a share. I'll chip in $10.

I don't know if the next 30 years will play out like the past 30 years at all in terms of royalties. I wonder whether this is a good investment

[Ecstatic Fanatic]

I don't know if the next 30 years will play out like the past 30 years at all in terms of royalties. I wonder whether this is a good investment

Radio stations are about due to add some new “oldies” so maybe this is the next Amazon stock.

All kidding aside that’s why I’m interested in the IRR they used. The rates listed seem to factor ina drop off from last years amounts.

[dangum]

Does it say how they calculate their “theoretical IRR”? For some reason that is also available to members only. The finance guy in me is interested in that.

Sure, here is what they say:

Theoretical IRR

The Theoretical IRR is a formulaic guideline based on an extrapolation of the normalized, historical earnings trend of the catalog. The Theoretical IRR is not a guarantee of future performance. It should be used for comparison purposes only. Each catalog has its own risk factors and the Theoretical IRR is not based upon a specific analysis of this catalog.

Below are the steps we use to calculate the Theoretical IRR:

1. Organize each song in the catalog by age, in one-year increments.
2. Normalize royalty earnings for each of the age increments. (Done by removing any anomalous payments that are unlikely to reoccur, such as adjustments, settlements, or large radio payments for new releases.)
3. Develop the underlying trend rate for each age increment, based on the royalty earnings of each.
4. Forecast 10 years of cash flow and a resale value at the end of 10 years for each age increment by extrapolating the royalty earnings and underlying trend rate of each.
5. Sum the cash flow forecasts for each increment.
6. Calculate the Theoretical IRR using the current auction bid and the 10 years of cash flows with the resale value at the end of 10 years.

Key Considerations

Age of Song - Developed based on the statements provided by artists. The age informs how many years the specific song has earned royalties.

Trend Rate - Identifies the underlying direction of the past cash flows. This rate excludes one-time payments that may not reoccur in the future.

Decay Rate - How fast the trend rate deteriorates. The speed at which the trend rate deteriorates is based on the age of the song.

The site has compiled a comprehensive document about music royalties. I've uploaded it here if you want to read:
https://www.mediafire.com/file/0w5lvf25u28b...ide-v6.pdf/file

This post has been edited by dangum: May 11 2020, 7:50 pm

[Hoodstock]

Interesting.

[Badman]

I have nothing to add other than to say this is incredible. I'm sitting here wondering how people make money off this... like how could I as one guy ensure that I'm getting all my royalties every time something is played? I could see myself getting into this once I'm rich.

[Bremang]

I have nothing to add other like how could I as one guy ensure that I'm getting all my royalties every time something is played?

ASCAP enforces royalty collection

[dangum]

Royalties by source

I have nothing to add other than to say this is incredible. I'm sitting here wondering how people make money off this... like how could I as one guy ensure that I'm getting all my royalties every time something is played? I could see myself getting into this once I'm rich.

Take a read of the PDF I uploaded. It describes how monies are collected and how you get your payments.

If I had a few hundred thousand lying around I could think of better ways of investing than royalties from a dying industry. You need to ask yourself - why are they selling? If they were so profitable and would generate income for the next 30 years then wouldn't you want to keep them yourself?

[dangum]

I wonder if the person who purchased the rights is making money with their investment.

[JonSnow]

I wonder if the person who purchased the rights is making money with their investment.

Even if they are does it really matter? Regardless of who they are or what country they're from they're suffering from inflation because all the governments are trying to paper over their debts with the money printer. Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr. Whatever money they make is going to continue to see its purchasing power continue to drain.

I'm going to assume that there is royalty collection going on. SiriusXM plays Live fairly often. Who knows how much money that generates in royalties for Live. Subscription fees are high AF for satellite radio, but that's also a dying platform filled mostly with aging gen Xers and older. Younger generations get all their music consumption from YouTube, Spotify/Apple, TikTok, etc. if they even consume music in the traditional way in the first place.

I'm sure there is a way forward to fixing the music industry, but it's not going to happen until money itself is fixed first while at the same time all the gatekeepers go get fucked.

[LiveFan92]

I wonder if the person who purchased the rights is making money with their investment.

I randomly think about this thread from time to time with the same question, but I don't know why. ha